Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 13.962927 15.948530 18.079184 20.531145 23.270427 26.231878 29.671105
2025-08-31 10.900123 13.580231 16.673997 20.491414 25.055871 30.318256 36.823014
2025-09-07 9.359411 12.332115 15.927381 20.562327 26.342123 33.272006 42.165316
2025-09-14 8.402138 11.635000 15.708936 21.165482 28.220773 36.967466 48.553724
2025-09-21 7.355257 10.655745 14.972060 20.953985 28.940449 39.135959 53.018703
2025-09-28 6.248026 9.458823 13.811422 20.044474 28.623684 39.882722 55.614196
2025-10-05 5.821288 9.146926 13.793490 20.631784 30.284330 43.242687 61.733569
2025-10-12 5.402638 8.795875 13.674798 21.042239 31.689818 46.288603 67.529403
2025-10-19 4.885288 8.241681 13.207624 20.900009 32.277994 48.203067 71.815833
2025-10-26 4.417404 7.714498 12.729462 20.690183 32.728363 49.909913 75.844124
2025-11-02 4.063538 7.331551 12.432871 20.717386 33.504366 52.085939 80.595517
2025-11-09 3.772894 7.022539 12.221927 20.849702 34.425330 54.487681 85.741223
2025-11-16 3.460169 6.654202 11.897893 20.795862 35.077244 56.549948 90.524501
2025-11-23 3.156049 6.271934 11.520856 20.627917 35.534528 58.331021 94.953365
2025-11-30 2.936996 6.017626 11.332462 20.744487 36.429412 60.789912 100.468941
2025-12-07 2.818658 5.935644 11.429085 21.335902 38.109628 64.518204 108.057390
2025-12-14 2.582395 5.609103 11.072888 21.128665 38.458151 66.156387 112.436663
2025-12-21 2.264420 5.092750 10.337318 20.210524 37.561325 65.758100 113.567587
2025-12-28 2.187773 5.047421 10.454801 20.802806 39.246194 69.578101 121.550443
2026-01-04 2.092154 4.954121 10.474637 21.215988 40.634473 72.954869 128.919557
2026-01-11 1.934423 4.715927 10.201436 21.072818 41.036923 74.705757 133.680538
2026-01-18 1.782353 4.474551 9.903272 20.861436 41.300733 76.222838 138.091464
2026-01-25 1.669260 4.307298 9.738158 20.888848 41.988392 78.472961 143.786150